From Policy Signaling to Implementation: The Impact of Trump’s 2025 Reciprocal Tariff Policy on State-Level Job Approval in The United States

Abstract

The implementation of economic policies often exerts far-reaching effects across multiple dimensions, influencing not only the economic sector but also the political and social spheres. In this context, in April 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump introduced the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy as a key economic measure during his second term. The policy's implementation led to significant shifts in public approval across U.S. states. This study utilizes tracking data on public approval of the president across U.S. states from January to July 2025 to systematically assess the dynamic impact of the policy, from its signaling phase to its formal implementation. The analysis employs three distinct methodologies—paired sample t-tests, Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA), and a two-way fixed-effects panel regression model—to provide comparative validation of the results. The study quantitatively examines approval changes before and after the policy intervention and incorporates spatial visualization to identify regional differences. The findings indicate a significant nationwide decline in average approval ratings following the policy announcement, with no significant differences observed across states with varying political leanings. Quantitative analysis of the intervention effects reveals a sharp decline in approval ratings in the short term, followed by a modest recovery, though the approval ratings did not return to pre-intervention levels. From a spatial perspective, coastal and urbanized regions, characterized by higher voter diversity and a stronger inclination towards liberalism, exhibited more pronounced declines in approval ratings. In contrast, some states in the Midwest and South, owing to stronger personal support for President Trump, showed relative stability. This study highlights the stage-specific impact, time-lag effects, and regional heterogeneity of economic policy signals on public opinion, providing empirical evidence for understanding the political effects of federal economic policies while offering valuable insights for future policy design and public communication strategies.